The Climate Macroeconomic Megatrend. A Virtuous Carbon Cycle

1. Public finally recognises quality of life, safe society and an efficient economy trumps status and prejudice. Accepts this personal social responsibility. Acts, Lobbies and Votes low carbon
2. Government takes this electoral confidence signal. Accepts its leadership responsibility. Strongly regulates, incentivises, hypothecates low carbon
3. Business sees this clear price signal. Accepts the business responsibility to innovate. Plans long term business around low carbon goods and services
4. Public consumes more low carbon goods and services. Go back to 1

Dealing with climate starts with the individual. This can be strongly reinforced with leadership from the Government who can then regulate. Following this signal Business can then innovate confident about future fixed, less volatile and regulated price factors. The risk is lower, people can make the big calls with less chance of losing their job over it.

Key is for the public to start this virtuous circle by lobbying and voting for the real climate leaders. They can also lead themselves by creating the demand and by committing to pay the price for low carbon goods and services. This is only the case for an overwhelming minority today.

Presently the public want low carbon goods so they can feel good about it, but they are not willing to pay. Business wants profit so must wait for the early adopters to take the lead. Government leads slightly ahead of the public, slightly behind business. so we are in a stale mate

We all have plenty of carrots. More carrots will not move people as is seen with the price of fuel. Its inelastic. Sticks are now needed to make the change. Public and business will accept stick if it is both reasonable, fair and most of all they trust the leadership whipping them with it. Political levers such as the Conservative IHT promise are really not the right way to win public trust. They merely reinforce public opinion of poor leadership.

Climate Leadership Responsibilities

Climate is a Human Problem. Technology and economics are the easy parts. We either have the tools to revolve this or we do not. If we do not we are hosed anyway. If we do, the political decisions needed to move the global public and commerce to resolving action is what we should be undertaking right now.

The problem I have with this is I also believe the public are the beginning of a virtuous circle to climate success. But our leaders, prior to this, must first deliver us from prejudice. This means accepting responsibility rather than blaming others. Uniting people rather than dividing them. All things that are rarely undertaken by today's leaders, especially prior to important political events such as elections. The times when the public is most acutely aware of the state, its administration and how much to trust it.

For politicians this means commencing a courageous journey to the Undiscovered Country. An imaginary place where we have given up our prejudices and finally learned to get on with one another as global citizens.

Of course the alternative is much more costly and painful but may be of equal merit to the biosphere and perhaps civilisation in Darwinian terms. There will be fewer mouths to feed, fewer cars to fuel, fewer homes to heat and cool.

Should Politicians Really Get all the Blame?

Or is it time for the public to accept responsibility too. As prot said on his visit from K-PAX, “Don’t blame the politicians for your problems. They are merely a reflection of yourselves.”

I guess it's a question of enough of the public accepting the situation and pressing the politicians to act and enough politicians accepting the situation and having the confidence that the public will back them when they act. So far there is little acceptance in public due to wealth factors, thus the politicians are not confident they will get backing if they act.

In a democracy the government can only lead at the margin without risking getting voted out. Some might think our reaction to a politician who makes a small tentative shuffle in the right direction should be to say 'Well done, that's great. Now can you go a bit further, by teatime please'. Others recognise we don't have time to play around waiting for selfish public and weak leaders to make the call.

I’m with the latter based on historic human behaviour.

Wealth Denial is Analogous to Carbon Denial

Why do so many of us lie to ourselves and each other about the money in our pocket? According to Ms Dawson, it's because our financial wealth is perceived to reflect our social and mental health. She explains: "It isn't surprising that ‘money' is such an emotive issue, because how we manage our money is a reflection of how well we're seen to be coping with life in general. "We lie about our financial problems in order to save face, and to avoid being regarded as greedy, disorganised, naïve or out-of-control - all traits associated with over-spending or financial mismanagement."

The same could be said about our use of fossil fuels across the spectrum, individual to organisation to government to state. All of us dare not reveal their carbon footprint. It just looks too bad.